Monday, 5 December 2016

Stock Research Checklist - Profit Margin

Net profit margin is a percentage in terms of how much net profit is generated from each dollar of revenue.
Net profit margin = Net income / Revenue x 100
If a company increases its earnings, that is good. The next thing you need to identify is whether or not a company can maintain that profit margin. A company can increase revenue and earnings by undercutting the competitors , but that is not profitable for the shareholders. The company cannot do that for the long term.
What is the Company's Net Profit Margin for the Last 10 Years? Does the Company generate a Consistent Upward-Trend Profit Margin or at least maintain an average profit margin?
What is the Company's Gross Profit Margin for the Last 10 Years? Does it consistently grow, or at least maintain an average rate?
A gross profit is how much money is left after the cost of goods sold is subtracted from the revenue numbers.
Gross Profit = Revenue - Cost of Goods sold
Gross Profit Margin = Gross Profit / Revenue
Inventors need to look for companies with higher gross profit margins. Sustainable competitive businesses have a higher percentage of gross margins when compared with competitive industry companies.
Does the Company have a high pretax profit margin?
Pretax income is calculated after interest expenses,and deducted from the earnings before interest and taxes and before income taxes are paid. Calculate pretax income will give you the true picture. Always look for companies with high pretax profit margins. When a company posts a higher pretax profit margin, it can invest that income for business expansion, acquiring new businesses, paying dividends, or buying back shares.

Stock Research Checklist - Equity

Return on Equity is how much profit the company is generating with the shareholder's money. As a shareholder, you can earn lot of money over time with a company that has a high ROE.

What is the Company's ROE for the last 10 years? Does it trend upward?
ROE = Net Income / Share Holder's equity

In EPS, management can do financial engineering to increase the figure over time, without increasing the earnings. If they buy back shares, which causes the EPS to increase. Buying back shares is a good thing for the company and shareholders but the intention to increase the EPS is not good enough. If the company uses more debt, it can generate a higher ROE. Generating a high return on equity with reasonable debt is a good thing.

Does the Company have more equity when compared with Long Term Debt?
Debt-to-equity ratio is one of the most important figures to examine. You need to look for companies with more equity than debt. That kind of company has a strong balance sheet, and investors do not need to worry about leverage problems. This kind of company makes more money for long-term shareholders.

When a company has more debt than equity, especially when the economy starts to slow, the company may feel financial pressure to make the interest payments or run the risk of violating the financial covenants. Situations like that quickly reduce stock prices, and long term shareholder values can be destroyed in short period of time. When a company uses leverage, it can generate more revenue and that revenue flows to the bottom line as earnings. If those extra earnings are sufficient enough to service the debt, pay down the principal debt balance and also add more earnings to the company, that is good.

If company has enough cash to cover the short-term debt, we can omit the short-term debt and use the long-term debt as the debt for calculations . Debt and equity ratio varies for different industries.

Stock Research Checklist - Debt

Debt
Debt is an important part of business. If it manageable debt, then it is acceptable. If the debt load is very high, it will be very hard for that business to succeed, sometimes the company will even end up in bankruptcy. The investors will end up losing all their money. Some industries are capital intensive, they have to use debt to finance their capital investment apart from equity capital. For example, industrial and manufacturing companies need to invest large amounts of money for factories in order to keep them up to date.

Does the Company have Manageable Debt?
If you find a capital intensive business at a bargain price. Here you can compare that company's debt level with a direct competitor. If the company can pay off total debt with five years of net income, then that should be a manageable debt. Find out when the current debt is coming due. If any debt is due within a couple of years, what kind of plan does the company have to pay off that loan? When the company has debt as a bond, it is less risk to the company. Long term bonds are a good kind of debt to have.

The economy goes through life cycles: recessions, recoveries and boom periods. If a company loads up on too much debt during boom years, it can generate a higher revenue and be able to service debt. When it enters into a recession, it will be hard to cut costs and reduce the debt as fast as the revenue decreases. It will be hard to handle the debt when the recession period starts.

Does the Company have Manageable Short-Term Debt?
Short-term debt translates into whatever debt a company needs to pay before one year. It appears on a balance sheet's current liabilities. This may be interest that needs to be paid on long-term debt. If any debt comes due, the company should have money to cover that debt. The company should have cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments, accounts receivables, hidden assets and cash flow numbers to pay the short-term debt. If the company does not have enough cash to cover that short-term debt, do not even look at the company because it may a sinking ship.

What is the Company's Current Ratio?
Current ratio helps you to find out whether or not a company has the ability to pay current obligations.

The formula of Current Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities

What is the Company's Long Term Debt? Is it Manageable?
As a first choice, investors should look for companies that do not have long term debt. The companies may not have long term debt for any of the following reasons.
  1. The company is operating in an industry where it does not need to spend a lot of money on capital expenditures.
  2. Search for these kinds of companies because they can create more shareholder value over the long term. There is no risk of default because they have no longer term debt. Plus, company earnings are not reduced because of interest payments on long term debt.
  3. The company may be in a sustainable competitive position to earn a higher profit and, in turn, generate a higher cash flow every year. Management can fund the growth of the company from existing cash flow rather than relying on debt. This kind of business is good and generates higher shareholder value over the long term.
  4. When the input costs increase, sustainable-competitive-position companies can raise the prices and still maintain a decent profit. That is, management can expand the company via internal growth and spend capital expenditures from company profits rather than depending on debt. Companies like this can generate excellent value for shareholders over the long term. If you can identify companies with no long-term debt and a competitive position at attractive pricing, you should invest and hold those companies for the long term to generate a great return.
Reasonable debt means the company is able to repay the whole long-term debt within four or five years of net income. The best kind of debt is in corporate bonds with long term maturities and low interest rates. Investors cannot demand the principal payments immediately and also management can defer the interest payments.

Does the Company Pay Little or Not Interest Expense?
Durable, competitive companies pay little or no interest expenses for their short and long term debt. If a company does not spend money on its interest expense, this is good because it is a zero debt company. Reasonable amount of interest expense is acceptable, need to find out what percentage of operating income is spent as an interest expense. Determine whether this is consistent percentage or going down. If it is going up, this is a bad sign.

Does the Company have Preferred Shares?
Preferred shareholders have a higher claim on the capital structure of the company. They get paid a fixed dividend and have conversion rights to common stocks. If the company is in liquidation, preferred stockholders will have claim before the common stockholders get paid. This form of preferred stock is a costly form of debt because the company needs to pay the interest and have an equity appreciation potential for the preferred stockholders.

Stock Research Checklist - Earnings

Examine Earnings Growth 
Earnings Per Share (EPS) = Company Net Income / Number of Shares Outstanding
When you are using the number of outstanding shares, use the fully diluted shares instead of outstanding shares)
Here is the calculation to get the EPS growth rate
FV = Future EPS value
PV = Current EPS value
N = Number of years
As an investor, you need to question the reason when the earnings drop. Does the company have a temporary problem or is it going to produce reduced earning s in the company years? You need to read the annual and quarterly reports, listen to the company's conference calls, you will be able to find the reason for the revenue and earnings decrease. Always look for consistent earnings growth from a company so that you can reasonably predict the future earnings of the company.

How Does the Company Use the Retained Earnings? Do the Retained Earnings Reflect in the Stock Price?
When the management of a company invests earnings back into the business, that investment should yield a higher return because of retained earnings. When the management does a great job using retained earnings, it will increase the earnings of the company and in turn, increase the earnings per share.
Market price does not reflect the true value of the company in the short term. If you are looking at 10 years or more, market price will reflect the true value.

What are the Company's Owner Earnings for the Past 10 years? Does It Grow Consistently?
"Owner Earnings" are the earnings the owner can keep after the capital expenditure. The formula to calculate the owner earnings
Owner Earnings = Net Income + Depreciation & Amortization - Capital Expenditure
If the owner income trend increases over time, you can project the approximate owner income for the future. The number is not perfect.

What is the Company's Recent Earning Momentum? Is it Comparable to Its Long Term Growth Rate?
An investor's portfolio should contain some percentage of large capt stocks. When the market is in a downturn, these established company stocks go down less when compared with small or mid cap stocks. When you are researching established companies to invest in, one of the important tasks is to find out if a company's earning momentum matches with its long term growth rate. When the company is small, its growth rate may be very high. It grows very fast and reaches mid-cap status. When a company is a large cap, its growth rate may not be as high as small and mid cap growth but there will still be growth. The growth may be through internal expansion like expanding to new parts of the world, introducing new products, or entering new markets. The other part of expansion is through acquisition.

When you are researching a company, you need to find out if the company's growth rate in recent years matches with its long term growth rate. If the company keeps earning momentum, that is great and the company has passed this checklist item.

Does the Company have any One-Time Event that Recently Increased Earnings?
When you are analyzing a company's stocks, you need to find out if there were any one-time event that increased the company's earnings recently. If there are one-time events, you need to remove those earnings from your calculation of historic earnings so you can project the earnings conservatively. One time events could be a sale of asset and a big order from a particular customer.

What is the Company's "Operating Cash Flow"? Does It Grow at a Constant Rate?
Operating Cash Flow is cash generated from the company's operations. Cash flow numbers are calculated from net income, depreciation and adjustments to net income, changes in accounts receivable, changes in liabilities, changes in inventories, and changes in other operating activities. Cash Flow should be positive.

How has the Business Performed in Previous Recessions?
All companies need to perform in all business conditions. When the economy is on upswing, all businesses do very well. But you need to identify the company that has done better when the economy is in a state of recession, that company is the real winner.

Does the Company have Client Concentration?
Investors need to analyze the company's client base. Suppose the business is earning more than 10 percent to 20 percent of the earnings derived from the particular customer, that is a disadvantage.
  1. The end customer can demand price reductions, which will affect the profit margin of the company because the big customer knows that the company relies on them heavily.
  2. If the end customer's business depreciates , your company revenue will also come down which is not a good thing.
  3. If that customer cancels the contract, there will be a big hit to the company's earnings.

Stock Research Checklist – Business Characteristics

Are you able to understand the Business Thoroughly? Is it a Simple Business?

What are the company products? How does the company generate revenue? How is the company market its goods and services? What is the competitive landscape of the business? Do you understand the business life cycle?

Companies that are involved in simple type of business tend to perform better in the long run. Business in the high tech industries where product life cycles are short, if they do not innovate the next product before end of its current cycle, it risk compromising its revenue and earnings.

We mentioned previously about business moat, there are two different types of businesses, one is difficult to replicate and other is a commodity type business. Hard to replicate business will have strong brand name, patents, and asset intensive which gives a competitive advantage. Commodity type business produce products with no difference from competitors's products. Commodity type business needs to be the lowest cost producer to fight the price war and it needs to be the largest size to demand best rates from its suppliers and distributors to compete on prices.

A non exciting industry can enjoy higher margin as lesser competition enters the arena and the company is able to build its market share over time, creating a moat to fend off later entrants. Not many entrepreneurs will like to enter non exciting industry. Young people like to run tech start ups rather than engage on a lumber business which can enjoy high margin.

Dirty type of business will not have new competitors entering the market will enjoy strong margin. For instance, waste management, cleaning services, and funeral business.

If the business has a chain of companies, is it successful in multiple locations before expanding nationally? IF you get into any of the successful chains in an initial period and hold the shares until they open for business across the nation, you can make tremendous amount of money. These types of national chain companies are available in retail companies.

Invest now

Invest Now
Most people wait until they are in their thirties, forties and fifties to start saving money. They realise that they are not getting any younger and will require additional money for retirement. The trouble is, by the time they realise they ought to be investing, they have lost valuable years when stocks could have helped them with their goals. Their money will have accumulated over the years through investing.

Instead, they spend what they have as if there is no tomorrow. Many expenses are inevitable, you name it, children to support, aging parents to support, doctor bills, enrichment fees for the children, insurance bills, household expenses, etc. If there is nothing much left over, there is not much they can do about it. But often enough, there is something left and they are not using them to invest. They use it to pay for fancy restaurants dinner and drinks or make the down payment on the fanciful car in the showroom.

Before they know it, they are heading into the sunset with pennies in their pockets. They have to squeeze themselves into a tight budget at the time they are supposed to enjoy life.

One of the best ways to avoid this fate is to begin saving money as early as possible, while you are living at home. When else are your expenses going to be this low? You have no children to feed and your parents are probably feeding you. If they don't make you pay the rent, so much the better, because if you have got a job you can sink the proceeds into investments that will pay off in the future.

Whether it is ten dollars a month, one hundred dollars a month or five hundred dollars a month, save whatever amount you can afford, on a regular basis.

We hope that young people will not fall into familiar trap of buying an expensive car. As soon as they land the first stable job, they become slaves to the car payments. A car robs you of free cash flow for investment, you will need to incur interest charges, road tax and fees (ERP in Singapore), insurance premiums, petrol and maintenance. So do not be deceived by the face value of the car at the showroom, there is alot of hidden cost and opportunity cost. For illustration, base on 2016 Singapore context, if you buy a car (say Toyota cost $100,000 with COE) for the next 10 years, you will have incur a total of approximate $160,000 for all miscellaneous cost mentioned earlier. Assume there is no scrap value here. $160,000 invested over the ten years, assuming $16,000 per annum with 5% (conservative) yield will amount to a considerable sum of money! Unless you can use the car to make money, then it will be a different consideration. We are looking at the numbers and not considering the intangible benefits which you derive from owning a car.

Putting Your Money to Work
Money is a great friend, once you send it off to work, it puts extra cash into your pocket without your having to lift a finger. If you invest $500 a year in stocks, the money gets a chance to do you a big favour while you are living your life. On average, you will double your money every seven to eight years if you leave it in stock. A lot of smart investors have learned to take advantage of this and they realize their capital is as important as their own labour.

If you start saving and investing early enough, you will get to a point where your money is supporting you. This is what most people hope for a chance to have financial independence where they are free to go places and do what they want, while their money stays home and goes to work. But it will never happen unless you get in the habit of saving and investing and putting aside a certain amount every month, at a young age.

The A-plus situation is when you are saving and investing a portion of your paycheck. The C-minus situation is when you are spending the whole thing. The F situation is where you are ringing up charges on your credit cards and running up a tab. Then that happens you are paying interest to somebody else, usually a credit card company. Instead of your money making money, the company's money is making money on you. The credit card companies love it when you buy things with the card and don't pay the entire bill straight away. They charge you a high interest as much as 24% which gives them a better return from your pocket then they could ever expect to get from the stock market. In other words, to a credit card company, you are a better investment than a stock.

People are buying things when they don't have the cash to pay. Instant gratification, and shoppers pay a high price. They read the ads and go into different websites to find the best deal for a new toy (TV, shoes, watches, bags, etc) to save themselves a few bucks then charge it on credit card, when may end up costing them an extra few hundred. They do so willingly without thinking about it.

In the past, people felt great pride when they worked hard and made certain sacrifices in order to pay for something all at once. Don't allow yourself to get into the F situation. It is ok to pay interest on a house which may increase in price but not on cars, appliances, clothes or bags which are worth less and less as you use them.

Moats in Investing

Keeping Competitors Out

Warren Buffett says," A truly great business must have an enduring "moat" that protects excellent returns on invested capital.

A company needs to do something very well in order to grow their business profitably. A moat protects a business from its competitors. It is a durable competitive advantage which keeps competitors away from the company's customers. Pat Dorsey who used to head the Morningstar is a firm advocate of moat, he feels that it is better to pay more for something which is more durable from appliances to cars to houses, items which last longer will be more expensive. The same theory applies to stock investing.

Branding

Branding is one of the most important aspects of any business, large or small, retail or B2B. An effective brand strategy gives you a major edge in increasingly competitive markets. Branding helps to build mind shares in consumers which is defined as the amount of space the company occupies in customers' minds. Tiffany has a moat. People pay alot for the box when the jewelry will be cheaper somewhere else. Coca Cola has a strong branding, the brand value in 2015 is said to be worth $83.84 billion.

Cost a lot to switch

There is not much of a competitive advantage bank has over others, their products are similar. With internet banking, branch locations has lesser impact than before. However, consumers tend to stay with one bank for average six to seven years as it is troublesome to change banks. When switching cost is high, there is a moat. Previously, iphone users would not use android phones as it was difficult to copy their contact list over to other phone and the apps are different. That was a moat. However, with more intelligent phones entering the market, the moat of iphone is slowing eroded.

Network Effects

The more users of the product, the more they will enjoy the network effects. Think Facebook, Twitter and Youtube. It is very difficult for competitors to penetrate a network moat.

Low Cost Producers & Sheer Size

Walmart has a moat. With economies of scale, Walmart can sell its products cheaper than competitors, ask for longer credit terms from suppliers which improves the cashflow while getting paid immediately from the customers. Larger companies can cement their advantages and sustain returns for longer by been more efficient in SG&A than smaller companies.

Erosion of moat

Moat is not permanent, competitors will figure out a way to acquire market shares and erode the competitive advantage. Industry stability is another factor in determining the durability of the moat. Stable industries can create sustainable value creation whereas unstable industries present substantial competitive challenges and opportunities.

Conclusion

You need to look for companies with consistent strong growth of net profit margin, this will indicate that the company has a moat. Then you need to consider what sort of competitive advantage it has and how its competitors can erode this. You can also consider the entire supply chain and where the profits flow to. This will reinforce whether the company has true moat.

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