Sunday, 24 January 2016

24/1/2016 AXP dropped further

AXP dropped further to $55. Reasons cite that the payment industry is facing intense competition. With the rise of Fintech and other credit cards, will American Express lose its competitive advantage? Is the moat wide enough for the company to tide through the global slowdown? We shall see.

As part of rebalancing of portfolio, once I have made gain in my other shares, I will definitely revisit this company. I like the business, the service among all the credit cards is the best.

5/2/2017 Review
Today AXP is at USD 77+ and rising. However, it is no longer in my portfolio.

Sunday, 10 January 2016

8/1/2016 Decision to switch from AXP to RDS.B

I bought AXP when the share was at around 80, then I start to average down at 70. Recently, the shares dropped further to 63.9 when I sold it. I still think AXP will have a lot of competitive advantage despite its recent news with merchandiser. I found greater value in RDS.B, I switch to this stock at about 40.74. The closing on 8/1/2016 was about 39.7. 

At this price, the dividend yield is about 9%, less the tax will be 6% yield which is still good. However, with the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, coupled with oversupply in the states, low demand in China, the oil prices as what GS suggest may hit the 20s/bbl. The Canadian oil is at that range already.

You can never buy the share at its lowest, I think there is a lot of competitive advantage Shell has over other oil majors. The potential merger of BG is already priced in. If things don't go that way, the share price may bounce back up. If merger takes place, Shell will take the opportunity to do cost cutting in such a competitive landscape to make things work. Short term wise, the share may go further down but I believe in the long term of this stock. I will diligently start to stock up on this business.

Saturday, 2 January 2016

The Parable Of The Pipeline
By Burke Hedges

Once upon a time long, long ago, two ambitious young cousins named Pablo and Bruno lived side by side in a small Italian village. The young men were best buddies, and big dreamers. They would talk endlessly about how someday, someway, they would become the richest men in the village. They were both bright and hard working. All they needed was an opportunity. 

One day that opportunity arrived. The village decided to hire two men to carry water from a nearby river to a cistern in the town square. The job went to Pablo and Bruno. Each man grabbed two buckets and headed to the river. By the end of the day, they had filled the town cistern to the brim. The village elder paid them one penny for each bucket of water. "This is our dream come true! "shouted Bruno. "I can't believe our good fortune." But Pablo wasn't so sure. His back ached and his hands were blistered from carrying the heavy buckets. He dreaded getting up and going to work the next morning. He vowed to think of a better way to get the water from the river to the village. 

Pablo The Pipeline Man: 
"Bruno, I have a plan," Pablo said the next morning as they grabbed their buckets and headed for the river. "Instead of lugging buckets back and forth for pennies a day, let's build a pipeline from the village to the river." Bruno stopped dead in his tracks. "A pipeline! Whoever heard of such a thing?" Bruno shouted. "We've got a great job, Pablo. I can carry 100 buckets a day. At a penny a bucket that's a dollar a day! I'm rich!. By the end of the week, I can buy a new pair of shoes. By the end of the month a cow. By the end of six months I can buy a new hut. We have the best job in town. We have weekends off and two weeks paid vacation every year. We're set for life! Get out of here with your pipeline." 

But Pablo was not easily discouraged. He patiently explained the pipeline plan to his best friend. Pablo would work part of the day carrying buckets, and part of the day and weekends building his pipeline. He knew it would be hard work digging a ditch in the rocky soil. Because he was paid by the bucket he knew his income would drop. He also knew it might take a year or two before his pipeline would pay off. But Pablo believed in his dream and he went to work. 

Bruno and the rest of the villagers began mocking Pablo, calling him "Pablo The Pipeline Man." Bruno, who was earning almost twice the money as Pablo, flaunted his new purchases. He bought a donkey outfitted with a new leather saddle, which he kept parked outside his new two-story hut. He bought flashy clothes and fancy meals at the inn. The villagers called him Mr. Bruno, and they cheered when he bought rounds at the tavern and laughed loudly at his jokes. 

Small Actions Equal Big Results: 
While Bruno lay in his hammock on evenings and weekends, Pablo kept digging his pipeline. The first few months Pablo didn't have much to show for his efforts. The work was hard, even harder than Bruno's because Pablo was working evenings and weekends too. But Pablo kept reminding himself that tomorrow's dreams are built on today’s sacrifices. Day by day he dug, inch by inch. 

Inches turned into one foot........... then ten feet............ then 20............. then 100. "Short-term pain equals long-term gain," he reminded himself as he stumbled into his hut after another exasperating day's work. "In time my reward will exceed my efforts," he thought. "Keep your eyes on the prize," he kept thinking as he drifted off to sleep with the sounds of laughter from the village tavern in the background. 

The Tables Are Turned: 
Days turned into months.One day Pablo realized his pipeline was half-way finished, which meant he only had to walk half as far to fill his buckets! Pablo used the extra time to work on his pipeline. Durring his rest breaks, Pablo watched his old friend Bruno lug buckets. Bruno's shoulders were more stooped than ever. He was hunched in pain, his steps slowed by the daily grind. Bruno was angry and sullen, resenting the fact that he was doomed to carry buckets, day in, day out, for the rest of his life. He began to spend less time in his hammock and more time in the tavern. When the tavern's patrons saw Bruno coming they'd whisper, "Here comes Bruno the Bucket Man, " and they giggle when the town drunk mimicked Bruno's stooped posture and shuffling gait. Bruno didn't buy rounds or tell jokes anymore, preferring to sit alone in a dark corner surrounded by empty bottles.

Finally Pablo's big day arrived, his pipeline was complete! The villagers crowded around as the water gushed from the pipeline into the village cistern! Now that the village had a steady supply of fresh water, people from around the countryside moved into the village and the village prospered.

Once the pipeline was complete, Pablo didn't have to carry buckets anymore. The water flowed whether he worked or not. It flowed while he ate. It flowed while he slept. It flowed on weekends while he played. The more the water flowed into the village, the more money flowed into Pablo's pockets!

Pablo the Pipeline Man became known as Pablo the Miracle Maker. But Pablo understood what he did wasn't a miracle. It was merely the first stage of a big, big dream. You see, Pablo had bigger plans. Pablo planned on building pipelines all over the world!.

Recruiting His Friend To Help:
The pipeline drove "Bruno The Bucket Man" out of business, and it pained Pablo to see his old friend begging for drinks at the tavern. So, Pablo arranged a meeting with his old friend. "Bruno, I've come here to ask you for your help." Bruno straightened his stooped shoulders, and his dark eyes narrowed to a squint. "Don't mock me," Bruno hissed. "I haven't come here to gloat," said Pablo. "I've come here to offer you a great business opportunity. It took me more than two years before my first pipeline was complete. But I've learned a lot during those two years. I know what tools to use now, and where to dig. I know where to lay the pipe. I kept notes as I went along so now I have a system that will allow me to build another pipeline in less time........... then another........... then another.

I could build a pipeline a year by myself, but what I plan on doing is teach you how to build a pipeline, then have you teach others and have them teach others. "Just think, we could make a small percentage of every gallon of water that goes through those pipelines." Bruno finally saw the big picture. They shook hands and hugged like old friends.

Pipeline Dreams In A Bucket-Carrying World:
Years passed. Their world pipelines were pumping millions of dollars into their bank accounts. Sometimes on their trips through the countryside, Pablo and Bruno would pass villagers from other villages carrying buckets. The friends would pull over and tell them their story and offer to help them build a pipeline. But sadly, most bucket carriers would hastily dismiss the notion. "I don't have the time." "My friend told me he knew a friend who's uncle's best friend tried to build a pipeline and failed." "Only the ones who get in early make money on a pipeline." "I've carried buckets my whole life, I'll stick to what I know." "I know people who lost money in a pipeline scam."

It made Pablo and Bruno sad that so many people lacked vision.

Both men resigned themselves to the fact they lived in a world with a bucket-carrying mentality............. and only a very small percentage of people dared to dream pipeline dreams.

End Of Story

WE LIVE IN A BUCKET-CARRYING WORLD 

Who are you? A bucket-carrier? Or a pipeline builder? Do you get paid only when you show up for work like Bruno the Bucket Carrier? Or do you do the work once and get paid over and over again like Pablo the Pipeline Builder?

If you're like most people, you're working the bucket-carrying plan. It's the time for-money-trap.
One hour's work equals one hour's pay.
One month's work equals one month's pay.
One year's work equals one year's pay.

The problem with bucket carrying is that the money stops when the bucket carrying stops. Which means the concept of a "secure job" or "dream job" is an illusion. The inherent danger of carrying buckets is that the income is temporary instead of ongoing. If Bruno woke up one morning with a stiff back and couldn't get out of bed, how much money would he earn that day? ZERO!

No Work-No Money!

The same goes for any bucket-carrying job. Once bucket-carriers stop carry buckets for any reason, they won't continue to get a paycheck.

No buckets = No Pay

Real-Life True Story:
My previous dentist was the best dentist I ever had. A complete professional. Great personality. Great technician. Every visit was virtually pain-free. She loved what she did and set her own hours. She was only open three days a week so she could spend four-day weekends with her family. She pulled down more than $100,000 a year working three days a week at a job she loved. This was a bucket-carriers dream job if there ever was one! One problem. Before the age of 40 she developed arthritis in her hands and couldn't work anymore. Today she teaches at a university earning one-third the income she earned as a dentist. There's no such thing as a secure bucket-carrying job no matter how great it seems. The problem with the time-for-money trap is that if you can no longer trade-the time, you no longer get the money!

Pablo the Pipeline Man recognized the limitations of bucket carrying early on - and he set out to create a system whereby he could continue to get paid whether he put in more time or not.

Pablo understood that there's no security in bucket carrying. He understood that a pipeline is your lifeline.

What would happen to you if you could not put in the time?
What about you - what would you do if your income stopped tomorrow?
What would happen if you got laid off?
What would happen if you got sick or disabled and could not carry those buckets anymore/
What if a medical emergency ate up your savings?
What if your nest egg evaporated overnight?
If your income stopped tomorrow, how long could you pay the mortgage? Make your payments? Pay for your kid's schooling? Six months? Three months? Three weeks?

If disaster strikes, do you have a lifeline that would protect you and your family? Or are you gambling that bucket carrying will continue uninterrupted for as long as you need the income? Whether you push a broom ... push paper...or push a profession.. you are still trading one unit of time for one unit of money.

Where is the security in that?

Pipelines Pay While You Play

As Pablo said, "There must be a better way!"

Fortunately, there is. It is called a pipeline - ongoing residual income - income that keeps coming in whether you put in the time or not. The only way to build true security is to do what Pablo did - build a pipeline while you are still carrying buckets!

Pipelines are lifelines because they enable people to escape the Time-for -Money Trap. When you build a pipeline, you do the work once, but you get paid over and over again.

Pipelines are open 24/7/365 which means pipelines can pay you while you sleep. OR while you play. Or while you are retired. Or while you are sick and disabled and can't work. Or during emergencies.

That's the power of residual income.
That's why I say your pipelines are your lifelines!

We observe 99% of the people in the world are carrying buckets, so we assume bucket carrying is the way to get what we want in life. That's why Bruno had such a tough time understanding the power of pipelines - Pablo was the first ever pipeline builder Bruno ever knew! Bruno rejected pipelines because they were different. To Bruno, they were unproven. To Bruno, pipelines were radical and risky. We grow up surrounded by bucket-carriers, so we figure that's the way-of-the-world. It reminds me of a bumper sticker I saw recently: 100,000 lemmings can't be wrong! People think the same way about bucket-carriers. 100 million bucket-carriers can't be wrong. Well yes they can!.

Let's face it. there are a lot more bucket-carriers in this world than pipeline builders. Why? Because bucket-carrying is the model that our parents followed and the one that they taught us to follow. The bucket-carrying model tells you here's what you do to get ahead.

Go to school and learn how to carry buckets. Work really hard. Earn the right to carry bigger buckets. (get promoted) Resign from "Bucket Company A" to work for "Bucket Company B" which lets you carry even bigger buckets. Work longer hours so you can carry more buckets. Put the kids through bucket-carrying college. Try to get promoted from carrying metal buckets....... to carrying plastic buckets............ to carrying digital buckets. Dream of the day you can retire from bucket carrying after 30-40 years. Until then, keep carrying those buckets....................... or, the bucket-carriers dream comes true. You hit the big lottery! (the odds are 1 in about 14-15 million against them, but hey most all bucket carriers think it could happen to them, so........... until then, keep carrying those buckets) What do all those bucket-carriers earn for their efforts? Surprisingly little. According to Parade magazine's "What People Earn" survey, the average worker in America earns $28,500 a year. Subtract almost 20% for taxes, and that leaves $22,500 take-homepay. Let's face it, that's not enough for most people to live on.

What do bucket-carriers do when they need more money? Because they have a bucket-carrying mentality, they come up with a bucket carrying solution............ if you need more money you've got to carry more buckets!

"i'll get a second job carrying buckets in the evenings and on weekends," Daddy Bucket Carrier decides. "I can go back to the bucket-carrying job I had before the kids were born," Mommy Bucket Carrier says. "The kids can get bucket-carrying jobs after school and in the summer," they both say. The Results?

Today North Americans work the longest hours in the world. Yes, even more than the work-obsessed Japanese. Is the earn-more-money-by-carrying-more-buckets plan working? No. Here are the facts.

Consumer debt is at a record high. The average household has 95 cents worth of debt for every dollar earned. The proportion of women working to support their families more than doubled over the past 20 years. More people are taking second and third mortgages on their single biggest asset............ their homes............. to pay the bills. Hello! What's wrong with this picture?

Now, if you were a cook... or a retail sales person, you might look at the annual income of a lawyer or physician and think," Wow, if I made that kind of money every year, I will be financially free! No more lying awake at night worrying about paying the bills!"

It's the fallacy of carrying bigger buckets. Bucket carriers tell themselves everything would be okay if they could just carry bigger buckets. Bucket carriers are forever wondering how much money other bucket carriers earn. True, the doctors bucket is a lot bigger than the cook's bucket............. about ten times bigger! But that doesn't mean the doctor is financially independent. He's just as dependent on his bucket carrying job as the cook. Why? They spend more! Truth is, the doctors and lawyers making six-figures are spending most of their income to support their lifestyles.

a. The average worker drive a $5,000 used car. The doctor drives a $45,000 Lexus.
b. The average worker sends his kids to free public school. The doctor sends his kids to private school............ and on and on and on.
c. The average worker owns a $75,000 home. The doctor or lawyer owns a $350,000 home.
d. The average work eats at Pizza Hut once a week. The doctor or lawyer eats out twice a week at ritzy restaurants.

The doctor spends just as much of a percentage of his income than all other bucket carriers. All are living paycheck-to paycheck. If you don't believe check the bankruptcy records. You'll see every kind of bucket carrier listed in there!

All Buckets Eventually Dry Up 
Thomas J. Stanley and William D. Danko, author of "The Millionaire Next Door" observed that carrying big buckets is not the same as creating wealth. The authors came to this realization that people who lived in upscale neighborhoods, assuming that people who drove expensive cars and lived in expensive homes were wealthy.

That is a wrong assumption. Their conclusion about wealth creation:
"Wealth is not hte same as income. If you make a good income each year and spend it all, you are not getting wealthier. You are just living high. Wealth is what you accumulate, not what you spend.

How do you become wealthy? it is seldom luck or inheritance or advanced degrees or even intelligence that enables people to amass fortunes. Wealth is more the result of a lifestyle of hard work, perseverance, planning, and most of all, self discipline."

All buckets dry up no matter how big they are. Pipelines, on the other hand, are self-sustaining. But pipelines require sacrifice. Pipelines don't build themselves. You have to be willing to put in the time and effort to build them.

A Bigger Bucket Won't Solve The Problem. 
Why? Carry as big a bucket as you can but build a pipeline on the side, because as long as you carry buckets, you have to show-up to get paid, and no matter how big the bucket is... it will dry-up.

Everyone would love to increase the size of their bucket. No one's goign to turn down an annual raise or a better job with more pay. IF bucket carrying is your only source of income, then I say carry the biggest bucket you can. That's only common sense.

But the fact remains that carrying buckets is never going to make you financially free. Carrying buckets will never make your family safe and secure - no matter how big your buckets!

Why?

Because as long as you carry buckets, you have to show up and do the work in order to get paid. The day you stop carrying buckets, that's the day the money stops coming in!


  • illness or injury
  • layoffs
  • retirements


Many a person has gone from the "Millionaire Next Door" to the "Bankrupt Person Next Door" because he neglected to build pipelines while he was carrying buckets. When his bucket dried up, so did his lifestyles.

Pipelines are your lifelines.

Time Levels The Playing Field 

It doesn't matter how much money your earn ............ or how little money you earn........... we all have the same amount of time in each day. 24 hours. It doesn't matter if you're a doctor, lawyer, or cook. It only takes time to build a pipeline. Yes you'll need tools................ but those will cost relatively very little. So everyone has an equal opportunity when it comes to building a pipeline! Timing Some people put off building their pipelines because "right now isn't a good time for me." Guess what? Right now is a bad time for anybody! We're all stressed. We're all busy. We're all putting out fires and dealing with unexpected emergencies. There's a word for these bad times. It's called life! 7 Some people waste their lives waiting for the "perfect time" to do x, y, or z. Well, they'll die waiting because there's no such thing as a perfect time. If someone told you they'd give you $1 million dollars if you'd sit in a corner and knit for two hours every day for one year, you'd find the time right? It wouldn't matter if your son broke his arm.............your car wouldn't start........ the cat got sick. Rather than forfeit $1 million dollars, you'd find the time no matter what.

Waste Not Want Not 
People often ask me why they should take the time and effort to build pipelines when things aren't going so bad for them right now. They say they deserve to relax in the recliner and watch TV after a hard days work. Got a few bucks in the bank.... kids are doing good in school........... no need to "rock the boat". There's no better time to build your pipeline than when things are going good!

A Final Thought 
A man was on the 30th floor of a fancy hotel overlooking Central Park in Manhattan. He pulled back the shades........... and threw open the window to enjoy the view. As he leaned out the window, he was startled to see a man falling past his window. "How you doing?" he asked the falling man. "Fine so far," came the reply. The point is, there are lots of bucket carriers in the world that think they are "doing just fine". But they can't stay in the free-fall forever. Sooner or later they'll meet the ground. For bucket carriers it's................... don't or can't show up for work............... no more paycheck!

Saturday, 26 December 2015

Multiple Sources of Income

The problem in Singapore's school system is they do not teach financial literacy and entrepreneurship. In the past, it was about rote-learning, trained in a specific manner to gain employment in accordance to the demand and supply of the nation.

Why do we need Multiple Sources of Income?
Never place all your eggs in one basket and employment has shifted from iron rice bowl to present day contract work. Even though your contract with your employer is a permanent job basis, your work is good as your last. The harsh reality is for PMET (Professional Manager Executives and Technicians) to face a more challenging landscape to gain employment when their age hit 40 and beyond. Due to globalisation, you will be competing for jobs with the world. Jobs here today may become obsolete in a few years time.

Currently, most of the employers in my industry is shifting to Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. This spells for disaster in a few years time. By then, I will be in my early 40 and maybe considered obsolete by others.

Instead of whining, I need to use my present income and resources to create other sources of income.

1st Source of Income - Investment
In my previous post, I have already mentioned from my portfolio, it will create two types of investment income. The first type is dividend income. The second type is capital gain income. This is on the basis that your stock price goes up and you can sell your shares for a higher value. I am still learning about investment, reading up on books and attending courses.

2nd Source of Income - Residential Rental Income
Rental Income can come from the extra room in your house which you can rent out for $600 per month or you can leverage on a second house and rent it out. There are a lot of factors to consider, extra stamp duties, rental income taxation, whether your rental income covers bank interest. Currently, the SIBOR is increasing and rental income is decreasing. I will look into this aspect 

3rd Source of Income - Internet Business
The biggest advantage of starting a business online is it's incredibly cheap. It gains access to wide audience and create scalability in your business. This is a source of income which I am trying to understand and venture into.

4th Source of Income - Coaching/Consultation

Do you have an area of expertise? You can probably use your area of interest and expertise to provide coaching to an individual, to groom the person and help him to maximize his potential. You can provide consultation to a business and provide consultation services to help the business grow through marketing, lean in processes and set up systems to be efficient.

Conclusion

The above sources of income are brief introductions and there are many paths to Rome. The bottom line is time and tide waits for no man, many of my friends took the leap of faith and pursue their passion. I am still hanging on to my comfort zone which will soon cease.






Friday, 25 December 2015

My Investment Journey 2015

It is another year which I have remained invested with aggressive approach, putting all my money into the stock market. Through trading, I understand the greed and fear in me. There was a trade on ThaiBev which I took an leverage position which was beyond my comfort zone and the market went in the opposite direction. Furthermore, I was outstation in Vietnam during the transaction. I knew that I do not have the capability to buy the shares, it was just a trade and time was against me. I was terrified, selling my SGX shares to acquire the shares of ThaiBev.

I experienced a valuable lesson during the China market crash. I was monitoring CSOP A50 ETF 2822.HK when the euphoria sets in. All the aunties and uncles were buying the shares and suddenly the law of gravity kicks in. The shares were falling and I went to acquire a falling dagger, hoping that it will bounce back up. I acquired with every drop in 10% until I ran out of ammunition. Then I tried to sell whenever it recovered more than each drop. Thankfully, I made slight profit from this. The lesson learnt is you can never buy in exactly at the bottom. I believe in discipline in investing as well and you need to have the vision to believe in what you are doing is right.

I was naive as well, listening to my stockbroker that the stocks will forever go up. His advise was to add more to the holdings. Nevertheless, the PE and valuation of the shares in Singapore is low. Now I believe that when I do my own homework and I am convinced of the business, I will not regret or blame others. I will blame myself only. I studied the financial statements of Prada 1913.HK and convinced to acquire the shares at $33 and subsequently at $30. Currently, the share price of Prada is $23.95. 

My current dividend income from my portfolio is a total of S$17,425 as seen below. 
Currently, I only have this path of passive income. I need to create multiple sources of income.

The path to financial freedom is amidst lots of challenges and I forecast that a passive income of S$100,000 per year is required for the family to achieve financial freedom. Probably, I need to scrutinize and reduce the expense drastically to achieve financial freedom earlier in life. Probably to live simply.

Thursday, 24 December 2015

Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS)

I met up with my financial planner who is professional in his advise and planning which is different from those who I met in past. 

Today I am going to discuss about Singapore Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS). The SRS is Singapore government's strategy to address the financial needs of a graying population. SRS is voluntary unlike the CPF. The contribution can be used to purchase investment instruments. Contributions to SRS will enjoy tax relief, 50% of the withdrawals from SRS are taxable at retirement. SRS account is deemed closed at the end of the 10th year of withdrawal period. Any returns from investment through balance in SRS account after Deemed Withdrawal has applied will be taxed.

For 2011 to 2015, the yearly maximum SRS contribution is $12,750 and from 2016 onwards, the maximum contribution will be at $15,300. The strategy which I am thinking of adopting will be to accumulate a maximum of S$400,000 at the age of 62. Then I will draw down $40,000 per year. As half of the amount will be taxable and the first $20,000 will be tax free or 0% tax. From the taxation point of view, with the contribution of SRS will help me to save approximately $1,000 on tax. I can use this contribution to invest on a high dividend stock and grow my tool for retirement.

Below is some illustrations of the calculations:



First $80,000 - $3350
Say next $20,000 - 20000 x 11.5% - $2,300
Total tax = $5,650

If you contribute to SRS

First $80,000 - $3350
Next $20,000 less $12,730 = $ 7,270 (If contribute maximum amount to SRS)
This tier will be subjected to tax of $7,270 x 11.5% = $836.05
Hence total tax now = $ 3350 + $836.05 = $4,186.05

I will contribute to SRS if I still have this happy problem next year. This year is a blessed year, I will enjoy tax relief of $5,000 from my newborn. I need to save up on my emergency fund of 6 month expenses. I did a forecast, this will be achieved by June 2016. This forecast amount will allow me to clear my existing short term loan. Furthermore, this is assumed that I do not throw any more fund into the stock market.




Sunday, 6 December 2015

The Three Stages

I was reading the newspaper yesterday and the chartist exclaimed that Singapore stocks is experiencing stage 2 bear market move and this could last more than 6 years. I got curious to understand about different stages of market.

Firstly, there are two type of movements - primary and secondary. Primary movements represent the general trend of the market which will last for few months to years. Once the primary trend is in place, it will remain in place until a counter trend take over. Daily fluctuations can move with or against the primary trend.

Secondary movements are reactive. In bull market a secondary movement is correction. In bear market, secondary movements are reaction rallies.


There are three stages to both bull and bear markets. 


Stage 1 of Primary Bull 

The first stage of bull market is indifferent compared to bear market. The market sentiment is pessimistic. The news in the market is bad and valuation is cheap. At this stage, the smart investors will start to accumulate stocks. They want to own the stocks in the long run. Stocks are cheap when nobody wants to buy them. 

Stocks have reached a bottom and the price momentum starts to slowly build up.When the market starts to rise, there is widespread disbelief that a bull market has begun. After the first leg hits high and starts to go down, the analyst will say that bear market is not over. If it is a secondary move, then the low is above the previous low, there will be consolidation before an advance will begin. When the leg passes the previous high, it marks the beginning of the second leg and primary bull run. This is the stage of accumulation.


Stage 2 of Primary Bull

This stage will be the longest and there will be great advance in prices. The business sentiment is dovish and stocks will increase in valuation. Earnings will increase and overall confidence level will rise.

Stage 3 of Primary Bull

This is stage of euphoria and speculation. During this final leg, the public is fully involved. When you see the everyday aunties and uncles asking you for the next hottest stock to buy, you know the top cannot be far. It is time to sell all your stocks and get out of there.

Stage 1 of Primary Bear 

Once the intelligent investors realise that the business sentiments start to deteriorate, they start to sell stocks. The public is still in the market buying more stocks. However, the market will start to decline. The media and public will still remain bullish. After a slight descent, there will be a secondary move which reflects the portion of the decline. The rally will be fast and steep. This movement will instill confidence to the public that the bull is still in control. The secondary movement will be lower from the previous high.

Stage 2 of Primary Bear

This is the longest duration in the bear market and usually mark by deteriorating business conditions in the economy, shortfalls will occur in firms, profit margins and revenues continue to fall. The sell off continues to persist.

Stage 3 of Primary Bear

By final stage of bear market, all seems to be lost, the public are moving away from stocks. The stocks become very undervalued, the selling continues. The news are always bad and market continues to decline until all the bad news is fully priced into stocks. Only when the stocks reflect the worst scenario, the cycle begins. 

Is Singapore moving into Stage 2 Bear market?




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